Twin Fronts to Spark Widespread Flooding, Severe Storms & Wildfire Risks Coast to Coast
Aug 28, 2025
Stat 1: Monsoon? More like “nonsoon”. The Phoenix metro has only received 4.63" of rain in 2025, 25% below the annual average.
Stat 2: Despite all the spring floods in the Texas Hill Country, 191 of the 254 counties are under a state disaster declaration due to wildfire dangers.
Weather Headlines
There are two paralleling fronts that will cause trouble spots across a good chunk of the country Friday through the start of next week. Flash flooding is the main concern over a severe storm threat, as moisture will be plenty available to spark widespread showers and downpours. Flooding will be possible most extensively along the southern sloping front, with a northern front causing more isolated flooding.
Aside from the flooding potential, the risks are relatively minor, but certainly not absent. Friday looks to deliver a few severe thunderstorms in two separate regions.
Wildfire risk will continue to stay elevate across the West into the weekend with dry conditions in place.
There is a new area for potential development in the Eastern Atlantic as a tropical wave comes off the African coast.
Friday Weather
Flood Risk
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast:
Multiple rounds of storms are expected Friday into Friday night, with heavy rainfall likely. Totals could reach 1–3" in the yellow risk area, while the green zones from Florida to Texas may see around 1". While widespread flooding isn’t likely, scattered flash floods are possible.
Rockies stretching to the High Plains: Moisture pumps into the region which will spawn a second area of elevated flood risk — New Mexico & Texas Panhandle. A shot of 1-3" is possible in this zone and may lead to a handful of flooding instances. As you extend north, rain totals will be closer to an inch or two.
RISK AREAS
MARGINAL RISK - Miami, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Rapid City, Billings.
SLIGHT RISK - Jackson, MS, Alexandria & Shreveport, LA, Roswell, NM, Amarillo, TX.
Severe Risk
A couple pockets could see severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening. The risk is low, so any storms that turn severe should be isolated.
Gulf Coast: A cluster of storms may spark some strong damaging wind gusts. Lake Charles and Lafayette, LA are in the risk area.
High Plains: Afternoon storms may turn severe with damaging wind and hail possible. Colorado Springs & Pueblo are in risk area.
Saturday Weather
Flood Risk
A vast area will continue to interact with copious amounts of moisture throughout much of Saturday. An elongated front stretches from Florida to New Mexico, and daily heating will trigger storms across the Plains. The highest risk for flooding will be over Texas and New Mexico. Heavy rainfall rates up to 2"/hr may be possible. Widespread rain totals may reach between .5 to 1.5", with the yellow region most likely reaching between 2-3", sparking a handful of flash flooding incidents.
Storms will be very scattered so it is possible some areas may see 2-3" and nearby communities see .25". Varying terrain will also lead to a couple flash flooding moments.
RISK AREAS-
MARGINAL RISK - Miami, Jacksonville, Atlanta, New Orleans, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Omaha, South Dakota.
SLIGHT RISK - Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Abilene, San Angelo, Roswell, Carlsbad
Sunday Weather
Flood Risk
A surface front continues to lag across the southern tier of the country on Sunday. The potent front stretches from the Carolinas to the Desert Southwest, while a northern system sparks showers across the Plains & Upper Midwest.
Southwest to Carolinas: A southerly flow continues to push into the Desert Southwest, setting up moisture to readily available to spark scattered showers, some heavy at times, on Sunday. Some rain totals may reach a half inch to an inch over varying terrain, prompting for an elevated risk for flash flooding across Western Texas and Southern New Mexico. Stretching east, rain totals may reach a half inch to 2 inches, which may lead to an isolated flash flooding incident throughout Sunday afternoon and evening.
Plains/Midwest: A weak system may organize a cluster of scattered showers and general thunderstorms on Sunday, leading to brief downpours that can deliver a quick inch in a short amount of time, sparking a couple of flash flooding incidents.
MARGINAL RISK — Orlando, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Charlotte, New Orleans, Houston, Austin, Dallas, Albuquerque, Tucson
SLIGHT RISK — El Paso, and Carlsbad, NM
Monday Weather
Flood Risk
Monsoonal moisture continues to keep West TX and Southern New Mexico at risk for flooding with the chance for .5-1"of rain falling on Monday. Varying and dry terrain will lead to a few flooding instances.
Elsewhere, across the Gulf Coast, interior Southeast, and Midwest/Plains, moisture will interact with a lifting mechanism to prompt scattered showers and thunderstorms. Florida may see up to an inch of rain while others stay below. Still, an isolated flashflood can be possible.
MARGINAL RISK — Orlando, Tampa, New Orleans, Houston, Albuquerque, Atlanta, Knoxville, Kansas City, Des Moines, Omaha
SLIGHT RISK— El Paso, Carlsbad, NM
TROPICS
As we mentioned earlier this morning, there is a new disturbance to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks. A tropical wave off the coast of Africa will likely see gradual development next week. Right now, there is a 20% chance for formation within 7 days. This chance should increase over the next few days but we are still very far away from discussing track, intensity, etc.
WESTERN HEAT/FIRE RISK
A common theme but the wildfire risk continues across the West. Moderate to high risks will be in place Friday and Saturday. Human caused sparks or lightning may set off brittle vegetation across the Rockies and desert Southwest.
SERVICES & WHY CHOOSE US:
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WHAT TO DO/TIPS:
TIP 1
Safety First: Prioritize personal safety and that of your family. Avoid flooded areas and downed power lines.
TIP 2
Document Damage: Take photos or videos of any damage to your property for insurance claims.
TIP 3
Secure Property: Cover broken windows, tarp roofs, and board up openings to prevent further damage.
TIP 4
Contact Insurance: Notify your insurance company as soon as possible to start the claims process.
TIP 5
Mitigate Mold: Dry out the affected areas within 24-48 hours to prevent mold growth.
TIP 6
Dispose of Debris: Remove debris safely to prevent accidents and further damage.
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