Two Waves of Severe Weather Threaten Central and Eastern U.S. Through Next Week
MAY 15, 2025
Stat 1: Since the start of 2024, Laredo, Texas has received only 12 inches of rain, 60% less than normal. The border town has been under an Extreme or Exceptional drought 30% of the time (360 weeks) the last 25 years.
Stat 2: The early hot, windy, dry conditions are causing a rapid increase in wildfires across North Dakota. More than 400 fires have burned over 28 thousand acres this year and conditions remain ripe for any fires to spread quickly.
Weather Headlines
All eyes are on an extended severe weather threat over the next week as two areas of low pressure on both ends of a deep trough will spark severe thunderstorms through at least Tuesday night for various parts of the country. This threat will be in two waves and likely continue through the end of the next work week.
There will be pockets of flooding concerns associated with this stretch of severe weather between the two systems that progress across the central and eastern portions of the country.
There is the chance for all hazards on the table with both rounds of severe weather — large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, cloud to ground lightning and flash flooding.
Friday Weather
Severe Risk
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely Friday afternoon & overnight stretching from the Interior Northeast to the Ark-La-Tex region. Supercells are likely in bunches. Large hail, tornadoes, and wind gusts are all probable with storms that cluster together.
Columbus, Cincinnati, Louisville, Nashville, Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock are all in main risk area. New York City and D.C. might catch a rogue severe storm with less of a chance for tornadoes.
Flood Risk
The same frontal boundary sparking severe thunderstorm will prompt widespread rain across the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys and into the interior Northeast. Rain totals will likely range between 1-3" with associated storms but intense downpours of 2"/hr over hilly terrain or urban areas can prompt sudden flash fooding.
Cincinnati, Louisville, & Nashville are most at risk.
Saturday Weather
Severe Risk
There are two areas of higher risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Early morning through the day across the Mid-Atlantic with the Southeastern Plains seeing action in the afternoon.
Ongoing storms Saturday morning from NYC down to Charlotte may contain damaging wind gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. Storms can reinitialize stronger in the afternoon before pushing off shore.
Supercells are possible across the Plains with all hazards on the table. Dallas, OKC, and Little Rock are all within the risk area.
Flood Risk
The flood threat is not as strong on Saturday as it is on Friday but both areas of concern do have above average soil saturation, making the forecasted rain totals of about 1" exacerbated because a) plenty of moisture can lead to brief, heavy downpours and b) multiple storms can traverse over the same area.
This has prompted a marginal risk for flash flooding across parts of New England and over the South. Urban areas are most at risk for excessive runoff including Boston, Albany, Memphis, Birmingham, Little Rock, Shreveport, and Dallas.
Sunday Weather
Severe Risk
On the western flank of the deep trough another storm system will prompt severe weather across the Plains Sunday afternoon and into the overnight. Hail and damaging winds are the main hazards at this time but there is likely the chance for a tornado or two to develop, as well. Ample moisture may accelerate the intensity of storms on Monday evening with a few supercells possible.
Oklahoma City and Wichita are the largest cities in the risk are for Sunday.
Flood Risk
There are 3 areas of interest for potentially flooding rain on Sunday from an active pattern.
New England
On going showers to steady rain will keep Maine wet Sunday morning with up to a half inch possible on saturated soil, leading to an isolated case of flooding.
Central US
Widespread rain will blanket the middle section of the country with a deepening low.
Some areas can see a shot of 1-2" of rain in a hurry, especially across Missouri and parts of Arkansas. A trailing low over the Rockies will merge with the Plains low and create a field of rain from Montana, through the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. Some instances of excessive runoff can lead to flash flooding with St. Louis and Kansas City most vulnerable.
Mountainous/Desert Southwest
Slow moving convection will prompt scattered storms over the Four Corners with local totals reaching 1" on Sunday. This can lead to a instance or two of excessive runoff near Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.
Monday & Tuesday Severe Thunderstorm Risk
The area of low pressure will likely strengthen and slowly progress across the Great Plains over the course of Monday and Tuesday.
After daytime heating, clusters and linear thunderstorms are likely to erupt with damaging winds, large hail, and likely a couple tornadoes being possible for each afternoon and evening.
Kansas City and Dallas may see severe storms both days with St. Louis at risk Tuesday.
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Monday Flood Risk
Two areas remain under the marginal risk for flash flooding throughout the day on Monday.
Central US
The northern edge of a large-scale system will see a sheet of rain extending from the Tennessee Valley to the Northern Plains. Storms should be present throughout the day with the afternoon being most intense. Widespread rain totals should reach 1 to 2" with a few spots nearing 3" — enough for some flash flooding possible. Dallas, Nashville, Memphis, OKC, St. Louis, Kansas City, Des Moines are all in the risk area.
Four Corners
Continuing showers are expected to keep the mountainous and desert southwest wet through Monday. A half inch of rain can be possible which will be enough for a few areas to see marginal flash flooding, especially if a few cells rain on varying terrain leading to excessive runoff.
YOUR FIRST CALL
BEFORE, DURING AND
AFTER DISASTER
ServiceMaster is an industry leader when it comes to emergency restoration services. Our team of highly trained professionals provide 24/7 response for any residential, or commercial property disaster, from fires and floods to extreme weather events and beyond.
With our years of experience in the field combined with cutting-edge technology, we can restore your business or home quickly and efficiently so you can get back on track as soon as possible.
WHAT TO DO/TIPS:
TIP 1
Safety First: Prioritize personal safety and that of your family. Avoid flooded areas and downed power lines.
TIP 2
Document Damage: Take photos or videos of any damage to your property for insurance claims.
TIP 3
Secure Property: Cover broken windows, tarp roofs, and board up openings to prevent further damage.
TIP 4
Contact Insurance: Notify your insurance company as soon as possible to start the claims process.
TIP 5
Mitigate Mold: Dry out the affected areas within 24-48 hours to prevent mold growth.
TIP 6
Dispose of Debris: Remove debris safely to prevent accidents and further damage.
The SMR and Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence partnership empowers us to leverage cutting-edge weather intelligence to enhance our disaster response efforts.